Only a few tens of years back, a crowd assembled at a county fair to guess the “slaughtered and dressed” weight of an ox. Francis Galton, a strong advocate of every crowd’s stupidity, averaged all individual guesses, by farmers, butchers, visitors, and randoms alike. to his surprise, the average was closer to the ox’s butchered weight than the estimates of all crowd members, even cattle experts. could it be that the crowd was really more intelligent than the few experts? did the experiment show the absolute truth? and could a similar concept of butchered cow estimates exist in the Baha’i community?
The Wisdom of Crowds by Surowiecki, although not great read with its unnecessary amount of anecdotes and lack of convincing conclusion, argues that the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. The book relates to diverse collections of independently-deciding individuals, rather than crowd psychology, as traditionally understood. Quite convincing arguments are presented, but taking a closer look, you will find that Surowiecki simply presents an anti-thesis to the traditional thought of the absolute intelligence of field experts, and a crowd’s lack of the mentioned. And once again we are in need of a sweetspot between the two theories, and without a doubt it is presented to us in the Baha’i Writings.
Baha’u'llah writes: “Take ye counsel together in all matters, inasmuch as consultation is the lamp of guidance which leadeth the way, and is the bestower of understanding.” He describes that the truth is found by a process of consultation, in which individuals openly share their opinions in a spirit of love and kindness, upon which then is taken a collective decision. It should be noted that Surowiecki explores conditions in which a crowd is intelligent. He describes four elements that are required to form a wise crowd. Among these, are a diversity of opinion, that each person should have private information even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of known facts, and a system of aggregation, a mechanism for turning private judgments into a collective decision.
These two are undoubtedly implicit in Baha’i consultation. A diversity of opinion is accessible through the diversity of backgrounds (economic, racial, social) represented in every Baha’i community, and in Baha’i administration not only through the members of the Institutions, but also through institutions such as the Nineteen-Day Feast. Consultation is in itself the necessary mechanism of aggregation. Information is shared, in any kind of form (facts, opinion, etc.), and a collective decision is taken on the basis of this information. By means of an administrative system that incorporates, on the one hand, democratically elected institutions that are vested with the authority of the community and decide upon matters concerning it, and on the other, the appointed institutions, who inspire, encourage, and advise. These twin branches of institutions allow for an effective flow and aggregation of information.
‘Abdul-Baha states another requirement of consultation: “The shining spark of truth cometh forth only after the clash of differing opinions.” In an interview, Surowiecki is asked whether by crowd-decision making he means consensus. Interestingly enough he replies: “No,…the wisdom of crowds isn’t about consensus. It really emerges from disagreement and conflict.” There might be differing opinions about consensus, but at least he found truth in ‘Abdu’l-Baha’s words, be it a few years later.
A further critique of the book must include the disconsideration of any Divine source of intelligence and wisdom. As Baha’is we believe that Consultation brings about truth only if the members of the crowd “when coming together, turn their faces to the Kingdom on high and ask aid from the Realm of Glory.”
As another element required to form a wise crowd, Surowiecki examines decentralization, a most fascinating concept I elaborated on in a discussion of “the Starfish and the Spider”. Decentralization allows people to specialize and draw on local knowledge, an element manifest in the Baha’i community.
As a last requirement, Surowiecki mentions independence, that people’s opinions are not determined by the opinions of those around them. One of the greatest human traits is imitation. If members of a crowd are too conscious of the opinions of others and begin to emulate each other and conform rather than think independently, we would have a problem. The Baha’i Faith stresses an independent investigation of realities. “Discover for yourselves the reality of things,… each must see with his own eyes, hear with his own ears and investigate independently in order that he may find the truth.” is ‘Abdu’l-Baha’s guidance for a seeker of truth.
And once again, the Baha’i Faith presents the sweet spot. Please allow yourself to comment or criticise my analysis of this book. You will find a good synopsis of the Wisdom of Crowds on Wikipedia. The following quotation is an appropriate conclusion to this discussion.
“Diversity of hues, form and shape, enricheth and adorneth the garden, and heighteneth the effect thereof. In like manner, when divers shades of thought, temperament and character, are brought together under the power and 292 influence of one central agency, the beauty and glory of human perfection will be revealed and made manifest. Naught but the celestial potency of the Word of God, which ruleth and transcendeth the realities of all things, is capable of harmonizing the divergent thoughts, sentiments, ideas, and convictions of the children of men. Verily, it is the penetrating power in all things, the mover of souls and the binder and regulator in the world of humanity.” -’Abdu’l-Baha
